Gallup took a poll of adults regarding Obama’s endorsement of gay marriage, and the topline number seems* to look good for the president: 51% approve of Obama’s support of same-sex marriage, while 45% disapprove. But when you take a look at how it might move votes, it seems to be a losing issue for Obama: 13% of Americans say Obama’s endorsement of gay marriage makes them more likely to vote for Obama, while 26% of Americans say the move makes them less likely to vote for Obama.

*The topline number should be taken with a large grain of salt. As Ross Douthat notes, research by NYU political scientist Patrick Egan shows that “the share of voters in pre-election surveys saying that they will vote to ban same-sex marriage is typically seven percentage points lower than the actual vote on election day.”